Investment Newsletter – January 2024

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Despite the S&P hitting multiple all-time highs toward the end of the month, January was a mixed month as far as markets were concerned, because as Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen writes, financial assets saw a fairly divergent performance. On the one hand, economic data kept surprising on the upside for the most part, which meant […]

Crisis Investing 1.0

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Dear Family, Friends and Partners, 1. During 2021, in the midst of the pandemic lockdowns, we came across a retail company called Perdanis Distribution which was badly affected by the lockdown. This company has barely started with the new retail business of selling garments with a new brand and was in the midst of renovation […]

Investment Newsletter – December 2023

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According to BofA report, January is Asia’s “big month”: January 13 is voting day for the Taiwan Regional Election, and January 22, the Bank of Japan may end extremely loose monetary policies such as YCC (yield curve control) and NIRP (negative interest rate policy). The biggest event is probably the announcement of the US Treasury […]

Annual Statement Report 2023

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Dear Family, Friends and Partners, Summary of the company’s investment performance in 2023: In 2023, the markets experienced a challenging year, primarily influenced by: • Uncertainties on global economic slowdown and recession; • The unprecedented tightening of global monetary policy; • Supply disruptions on the global bond markets; • Middle East war, with fear of […]

Investment Newsletter – November 2023

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According to the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), The study suggests that in 2020, approximately 80% of the inflation rise was attributed to supply shocks. However, in 2021, a notable improvement in supply chains played a crucial role in causing a decline in the inflation rate. The study highlights that this enhancement in […]

Investment Newsletter – October 2023

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Interest rates on US debt are on the rise primarily due to economic growth and increased debt issuance. This is evident in the sustained significance of real interest rates and term premiums as major contributing factors. In contrast, there haven’t been significant changes in inflation expectations and the projected trajectory of interest rate hikes. Whether […]

Investment Newsletter – September 2023

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The risks are still there for another banking crisis, but more significantly so are the risks of recession. According to the FDIC, the total of unrealised losses, including securities that are available for sale or held to maturity, was about $62bn at the end of 2022, prior to the March banking crisis. Interest rates have […]

Investment Newsletter – August 2023

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The yield curve is very inverted today, usually indicating economic stagnation; however, stock market crashes and recessions do not usually occur until sometime after curve inversion happens, averaging around fifteen months. The curve inverted in July of 2022, fourteen months ago, implying we’re in a prime time for a recessionary crash. Most often, the yield […]

Investment Newsletter – July 2023

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Moody’s remains the last of the three major credit rating agencies to maintain a top rating for the United States, after Fitch cut the sovereign rating early August and Standard & Poor’s lowered it in 2011. Particularly, Fitch Ratings downgrades the US credit rating to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’ due to expected fiscal deterioration and high […]

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