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31/07/2025

Investment Newsletter – July 2025

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Over the past five years, US Treasuries have delivered their worst nominal returns on record due to the sharp rise in yields from 2020’s historic lows, reversing years of bond overvaluation. While yields have now normalized near long-term averages, the outlook remains constrained by structurally higher inflation risks. Real returns are expected to remain modest, […]

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30/06/2025

Investment Newsletter – June 2025

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Q2 saw significant market turmoil driven by geopolitical tensions and aggressive trade policy shifts, yet asset prices ended the quarter strongly. The quarter began with a sharp sell-off after the US announced broad reciprocal tariffs, causing the S&P 500 to post its fifth-largest two-day drop since World War II. Bond markets also reacted sharply, with […]

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31/05/2025

Investment Newsletter – May 2025

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Markets began May with strong momentum, driven by solid US economic data, including better-than-expected payrolls and services activity and a surprise 90-day tariff reduction deal between the US and China, which boosted investor sentiment. The S&P 500 saw its best day of the month following the tariff cut and softer- than-expected CPI data, reinforcing hopes […]

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30/04/2025

Investment Newsletter – April 2025

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In BofA’s latest Flow Show note, the Chief Investment Officer maintains a cautious yet strategic stance for 2025, reaffirming his core trade idea of staying long on Bonds, International Stocks, and Gold, referred to as BIG. Despite a recent risk-on rally driven by what he terms the 3Bs, which include a sharp 50 basis point […]

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31/03/2025

Investment Newsletter – March 2025

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Gold is reaching new highs not only in dollar terms but across multiple currencies, driven by a strong global demand as central banks increasingly turn to the metal amid shifting geopolitical dynamics. Over the past four years, official gold reserves have surged significantly, outpacing declines in traditional dollar assets, as nations reassess their portfolios in […]

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28/02/2025

Investment Newsletter – February 2025

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Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett notes a striking divergence in the market, with U.S. equities, gold, and crypto reaching record highs while bonds remain deeply out of favor . Recent fund flow data shows $46.8 billion going into cash, $16.6 billion into bonds, $2.2 billion into crypto, a mere $0.1 billion into gold, and a […]

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31/01/2025

Investment Newsletter – January 2025

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As of February 4, 2025, the United States has implemented a 10% tariff on all imports from China under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, citing national security concerns, including the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. In response, China has announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, imposing a 15% tax on coal and liquefied […]

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31/12/2024

Investment Newsletter – December 2024

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In 2024, asset returns soared as central banks began cutting interest rates aggressively, even though inflation remained stubbornly high and economic growth stayed strong. The S&P 500 delivered a remarkable +25% total return, achieving back-to-back annual gains above 20% for the first time since the Clinton era. The “Magnificent 7” stocks drove much of this […]

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30/11/2024

Investment Newsletter – November 2024

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The market has become increasingly fragile, relying heavily on central bank intervention to maintain stability. This intervention has created a backstop, resulting in minimal stock market declines. However, the frequency of significant fragility shocks in the S&P 500 has surged, increasing fivefold compared to the 80 years prior to 2008. From 1928 to 2008, major […]

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