Investment Newsletter – October 2021
According to new data, the mu variant of COVID-19 that had sent some scientists into worry over its potential to be vaccine-resistant and more transmissible than the delta variant. The World Health Organization said that the mu variant was a Variant of Interest (VOI) on 30 Aug 2021, calling it a potential threat to public health if not brought under control. Its low case rate is the reason why it remains categorized as a VOI and not a Variant of Concern like the delta variant. Though it was speculated to be vaccine resistant, a new study out of Japan shows that the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine gives substantial protection against the mu.
The reduction in global credit reduction, which is a sign that credit conditions are getting tighter, indicating further decline in GDP growth and various asset prices. Interestingly, there is no any occasion when all the major components of the global credit impulse turned negative and there wasn’t a major sell-off somewhere.
Most importantly, during the month of April 2021, Reverse Repo Purchase (RRP) volume increased by USD 49 billion, USD 296 billion during the month of May, USD 362 billion in June, USD 124 billion in July, USD 124 billion in August, and USD 415 billion in September. If RRP volume continues around the same pace, say USD 200 billion a month, RRP volume will reach USD 2.0 trillion by the end of the year. With Quantitative Easing (QE) still running at USD 120 billion a month, the Fed continues to inject liquidity into the markets, which then continues to recycle back to the Fed via the RRP facility.
